R.F. Kennedy Jr managed to predict almost perfectly the day on which his research initiative would “find”  “the” “cause” of autism.  Of course, it’s easier when you don’t have to actually do any new ...

As Danielle Navarro explains, all small proportions are overestimated and all large proportions underestimated when people aren’t certain of the true value. This is an extremely consistent phenomenon, ...

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away ...

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

So far there have been 210 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.