The yield curve on U.S. government bonds has been upside down since the middle of 2022. The underlying circumstances of the yield curve's inversion, however, have changed dramatically in just the past ...

Predicting recessions involves a lot of correlation and not a lot of causation. What many believe is the best predictor is from the Treasury market, and it’s back in focus: an inverted yield curve, or ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

Elizabeth Guevara is a personal finance reporter who explains the world of business and economics and how it impacts your finances. She joined Investopedia in 2024. J. David Anke / Getty Images The ...

Last week, the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. The yield for 10-year Treasuries fell below the yield for the 3-month T-Bill. The inversion set off alarm bells and US stocks fell ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve officially exited its prolonged inversion on Friday, Sept. 6. This marks the end of over two years when short-term yields were higher than those on long-term bonds — a ...

The financial market’s top recession warning, the inverted yield curve, looks ready to end its record stretch of flashing a ...

An inverted yield curve indicates short-term rates exceed long-term, suggesting economic caution. Historically, consistent negative spreads on this curve have preceded recessions. Investors might ...

The gap between short- and long-dated Treasury yields continued to widen, with short-dated yields remaining anchored while long-dated yields edged higher, amid concerns about stagflation.

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...