CNN data guru Harry Enten delivered some troubling news for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

The party in power typically loses congressional seats in the midterms, leaving Trump fighting an uphill battle to protect GOP majorities.

In all but two midterm elections in the last 90 years, there have been just three outcomes for the party holding the White House in a midterm year: bad, really bad, or catastrophically bad. Since 2006,

President Donald Trump and his GOP are already using the tactics they could employ to meddle in the mid-term election voting process.

The GOP plans to invoke the activist’s killing in their broader messaging that accuses Democrats of being ideologically radical and soft on crime.

The 2026 midterm elections should be the American people’s next best opportunity to issue a verdict on the direction of the country. In a functioning democracy, the outcome would offer a clear signal: Do most voters want change or to stay the course?

and see this success translating to the 2026 congressional midterm elections. But do special elections predict what will happen in future general elections? Answer: Every time there is a special election in the United States, you will find people ...

It will be very tempting to use the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races as predictors for next year’s midterms.— Sometimes these races do provide a preview of the following year, but there are enough instances where they do not that we would urge caution against overinterpreting the results.

The 2026 midterm election might mark a turning point in how Congress grapples with President Trump’s second term in the White House.