Military analysts predict that Russia will increase the tempo of its operations in a summer offensive to increase pressure on Ukraine, but note that Moscow could struggle to keep up the pace into 2026. Russia shows no intention of wrapping up the war any time soon.

Air assaults on Saturday killed at least four people. Kharkiv’s mayor described an overnight strike as “the most powerful attack” since the beginning of the war.

A Ukrainian drone attack last weekend likely damaged around 10% of Russia's strategic bomber fleet and hit some of the aircraft as they were being prepared for strikes on Ukraine, a senior German military official said.